jokerinpoker| Boshi Fund Wang Xiang: Pay attention to gold price adjustment opportunities in the second quarter or can still be expected

AuthorJokerinpokerWang Xiang, fund manager of Boshi fund index and quantitative investment department

In recent days, there has been a pullback in gold prices after "soaring" all the way. Spot gold in London fell 2% on April 22.Jokerinpoker.72%, at 2326Jokerinpoker.810 / oz [source: Wind.], the biggest intraday decline since June 2022.

Gold: pay attention to the emergence of intervention opportunities after the price fall

Investigate the reason, Boshi gold ETF (159937) fund manager Wang Xiang analysis that last week (4.15-4.19) the gold market high shock consolidation, strong momentum trend began to weaken. Reviewing the current trend of gold prices since March, it was a consensus rush of loose logic in Europe and the United States at the beginning of March, and gradually switched to increased sensitivity to the geo-situation in late March. The most recent week began to continue the emotional game on the basis of the overall commodity heat. Although the amplitude and volatility are gradually increasing, the momentum stability is getting closer and closer to the short-term reversal window.

So, can you still buy gold? Wang Xiang's analysis said, "butJokerinpokerOur attitude towards the short-term marginal adjustment tendency of gold remains unchanged, but investors pay more attention to it during the adjustment period, which may be a better opportunity to re-enter the market throughout the year. "

"for investors who are unable to get on the bus in this period of rapid rise, it will bring a rare opportunity to intervene again. If the subsequent macro evolution does move towards re-inflation, then the high bond payments and fiscal deficit in the United States, as well as the gradual consumption of the US liquidity safety pad, mean that the Fed has limited room for further tightening, so that the real interest rate, which is highly negatively related to gold assets, will really expand the downward space, and gold trading odds will increase significantly. It is suggested that investors should actively pay attention to the emergence of intervention opportunities after the subsequent price fall. "

Non-ferrous metals: may still be worth looking forward to in the second quarter

The non-ferrous metals index has risen since the beginning of the year, although it has also been adjusted in recent days. As of April 24, the non-ferrous metals index (000819) has risen by more than 11% [source: flush.] .

Boshi Zhong Zheng Nonferrous Metals Mining theme Index (Class A: 018132 X C: 018133) Fund Manager Wang Xiang analyzed that at the beginning of the year, the dividend yield ranking of the non-ferrous metals sector in the Shen in case industry was relatively high, catering to the needs of defense configuration in the case of market uncertainty.

Since March, in the context of the upward inflationary point of PMI resonance between China and the United States, the re-inflationary logic deduction of physical assets is the main reason for the further strengthening of the overall plate beta. The mining cycle of upstream non-ferrous mining companies is relatively long. After the last non-ferrous bull market triggered by supply-side reform in 2016, the capital expenditure of the non-ferrous mining industry has declined rapidly, corresponding to the trough in the production period. as a result, the supply gap of mineral resources in the upstream is more obvious, which brings elasticity to the price of resource goods. at the same time, factors such as geo-games in the Middle East have also repeatedly boosted the market's attention and hype. "

From the perspective of sub-areas, industrial metals have attracted the attention of market funds, boosted by factors such as low inventory and shortage of copper resources. The precious metal sector has made a strong upward attack when gold assets broke through the operating range of the past three years, and the upside logic behind it has experienced the dual incentives of the expectation of monetary easing in the United States and the intensification of geo-gaming. Although the increase of energy metals lags behind relatively, it also rebounded strongly in the first quarter, and the bottom is basically found.

What is the future market of non-ferrous metal plate? Wang Xiang believes that judging from the itemized performance, the non-ferrous mining sector may continue to harvest excess performance in the second quarter under the blessing of more market funds, with the recent strengthening of the intensity of geo-game and the approaching of the loose node of the central banks of Europe and the United States. the field of precious metals in the second quarter may still be worth looking forward to.

From the perspective of industrial metals, we need to wait to observe the progress of domestic chemical debt and real estate chain repair. at present, the transaction volume of second-hand housing has warmed up, and whether it can be transmitted to the primary market is the main observation point in the next stage.

In the direction of energy and metals, the supply-side cost competition of lithium ore resources intensified in 2024, and the industry continued to reshuffle. With the left shift of the cost curve, high-cost projects may face clearing, but the overall downward trend of the price center has not changed.

In the direction of small rare earth metals, the pattern has improved marginally-overseas mine supply is facing bottlenecks, the growth rate of domestic quotas has also slowed down, and the demand for robots stacked downstream of new energy vehicles has been released. The "trade-in" policy is expected to bring both stock and incremental demand, and the price center of rare earths is expected to gradually rise.